Here is my 4A-I state tournament preview guide free of charge as the action gets rolling on Friday. My opinions might be worth that much.
THE FAVORITE: This has been an easy call ever since Scottsdale Saguaro hoisted last year’s trophy and you looked down at the roster and realized, ‘Holy cow, they have a bunch of guys back.’ If the Sabercats don’t win the title, it’s because of an injury, overconfidence or a weird circumstance. They are the best team in 4A-I.
THE SLEEPER: Peoria might only be seeded seventh in the tournament, but I think they have a real shot at making the championship game. The road isn’t easy – it’ll likely need to beat Marana, Glendale Cactus and Tucson Sabino in order to get there – but a title game appearance wouldn’t surprise me. Some coaches are high on No. 6 seed Tucson Canyon del Oro (which only had one loss, to No. 2 Cactus), but I don’t think the Dorados can beat Sabino in the second round.
BEST FIRST ROUND MATCHUP(S): The two most interesting games for me are Nogales-Paradise Valley and Apache Junction-Millennium. Nogales has only lost once but hasn’t played near the schedule as Paradise Valley, so I like the more battle-tested Trojans. Millennium is the fourth seed but also hasn’t had the toughest road. I think they’ll survive, but don’t stand much of a chance against Chaparral in round two.
BEST POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND MATCHUP: Peoria and Cactus. These teams will likely see each other in the second round as this once-heated rivalry attempts to reach that point again. The Cobras beat Peoria in the regular season, but I’ll ride Peoria and the revenge factor if these teams do face off again.
BEST POTENTIAL SEMIFINAL MATCHUP: Saguaro and Chaparral. Why, oh why, did Chaparral have to lose to Paradise Valley? It was a wonderful comeback by the never-say-die Trojans, but truthfully, the Firebirds put it in cruise control too early. Now these two heavyweights are stuck with facing each other in the semifinals if both advance that far. A neutral site somewhere in Scottsdale will be absolutely rocking.
TITLE GAME PREDICTION: Saguaro over Peoria. Choosing a seven-seed to make the title game isn’t always the wisest move, but unfortunately I couldn’t simulate these playoffs on a video game to knock some sense back into me. I like Saguaro over Peoria in the championship game as the Sabercats repeat and finish off their first undefeated season in school history.
